History, predictions & alerts
How does the State Department decide the Visa Bulletin cutoff dates?
Updated · Not legal advice
Each month the State Department compares reported demand (applicants who are documentarily qualified abroad and adjustment cases at USCIS) with the visa numbers still available under the annual category limits, the 7% per-country limit and the quarterly limits. It sets the cutoff at the priority date where demand fits the numbers it can use that month.
| Limit | Rule | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Annual category limits | Fixed shares for F1 to F4 and EB-1 to EB-5 | INA 203 |
| Family preference total | At least 226,000 a year | INA 201(c) |
| Employment total | 140,000 plus family numbers unused the year before | INA 201(d) |
| Per-country | 7% of family + employment preference numbers per country (2% per dependent area) | INA 202(a)(2) |
| Quarterly | No more than 27% of the annual limit in each of the first three quarters | INA 201(a) |
Why dates move in steps
- The 27% quarterly limit stops the year's numbers being used up early, so movement is spread out.
- Demand is only visible once applicants are documentarily qualified or file I-485s, so dates often move forward to "generate demand" and stop (or retrogress) when it appears.
- Unused numbers late in the year can be redistributed, including lifting the per-country limit for a quarter.
Why no one can promise a date
The inputs (how many people file, how fast USCIS and consulates process, family numbers unused last year) change every month. That is why even the State Department's notes speak in expectations, not promises. Use history as context, and set an alert for the actual move.
Quick answers
- How are Visa Bulletin cutoff dates determined?
- By comparing demand with the numbers available under annual, per-country and quarterly limits each month.
- Why did my category stop moving?
- Usually because enough demand appeared to use the numbers available for that period.
- Does USCIS set the dates?
- No, the State Department does. USCIS only chooses which chart I-485 filers use each month.
What to do next: get your Visa Bulletin alert
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Sources
- INA 201, 8 U.S.C. 1151: worldwide levels (Cornell LII)
- INA 202, 8 U.S.C. 1152: per-country limits (Cornell LII)
- INA 203, 8 U.S.C. 1153: preference allocation (Cornell LII)
- U.S. Department of State: Visa Bulletin (current, upcoming and archive)
Checked: November 12, 2026